The “Transition” Lesson We Never Learned

Misunderstanding Populism Will Lead to Authoritarianism

Abstract

This article argues that contemporary explanations of populism have misidentified its primary cause by focusing on immigration and economic inequality rather than perceptions of economic unfairness. Drawing on lessons from the post-socialist transitions of the 1990s, it examines why some societies experienced populist and authoritarian backlashes despite successful economic growth and market reforms. The article contends that public support for political and economic systems depends less on equal outcomes than on the belief that opportunities are distributed fairly and rewards correspond to individual contribution. Through a comparison of post-communist transition experiences, particularly the divergent trajectories of countries such as Russia and Poland, it demonstrates how reforms perceived as benefiting insiders and producing unfair inequality undermined democratic legitimacy and fueled populist movements. The article further argues that similar dynamics are shaping contemporary political developments across established democracies, where globalization has generated widespread perceptions that economic systems are rigged in favor of privileged elites. It concludes that addressing populist grievances requires policies aimed at strengthening economic fairness and social mobility rather than simply reducing inequality, warning that failure to learn this lesson risks accelerating democratic erosion and authoritarian tendencies.